DOMESTIC MARKET RECOVERING BUT STILL TOO WEAK (+14.1%)
Italians, with 140 companies present, were the second largest foreign delegation at EMO HANNOVER 2025, which took place from 22 to 26 September in the pavilions of the German fair. This demonstration of strength demonstrates how much the Italian machine tool, robotics and automation industry believes in this exhibition event capable of attracting operators from all over the world and therefore how essential activity on foreign markets is. The next EMO will take place in Italy from 4 to 8 October 2027.
During the event, UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, the association of Italian machine tool, robot and automation manufacturers, presented, in the usual press conference held on Tuesday 23 morning, the 2025 forecasts relating to the Italian industry in the sector recently revised by the Centro Studi & Cultura di Impresa.
Riccardo Rosa, President of UCIMU, commented: "Based on the latest order intake and deliveries by Italian manufacturers, relating to the second quarter of 2025, the Research Center had to revise the data presented just a few months ago. At the beginning of the year, we expected a slight growth in production supported by exports, a growth that the current context does not allow us to confirm today."
Production is expected to be 6,340 million euros (+0.2%), thus stable compared to the 2024 figure. Weighing on the final result are the decline in exports, on the one hand, and the weakness of activity on the domestic market, on the other.
On the international front, sales of Italian manufacturers abroad will stop at 3,895 million (-8.9%) compared to the previous year.
On the domestic front, however, deliveries will grow by 19.1% to 2,445 million, driven by the timid recovery in domestic consumption, which is expected to reach 4,230 million (+14.1%). Despite the double-digit increases, the estimated absolute values for these two economic indicators remain decidedly low.
“Furthermore, continued President Riccardo Rosa, “what our Research Center finds is that it is not possible to identify a real trend for the sector. Rather, we are seeing a trend with upward and downward oscillations, which reflects the chaotic situation of the context.”
With reference to exports, in the period January-June 2025 (latest available data), Italian sales of machine tools alone decreased by 13.3% compared to the first half of 2024. The decline was widespread. Poland, Mexico, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia were exceptions. It must be said, however, that the latter two, despite significant increases, still account for decidedly low values of Made in Italy machines.
The main outlet markets for Italian products were: the United States (292 million euros, -4.2%); Germany (127 million, -28.1%); Poland (97 million, +8.3%); France (97 million, -7.5%); India (85 million, -14.1%).
“The data, commented Riccardo Rosa, “tell us that Germany is suffering, and with it, Europe and Italy, whose companies are integrated into German value chains. Compared to Germany, the situation in the automotive sector is particularly difficult, paying the price for the transition to electric motors but also for the construction crisis. The hope is that the government program, worth 46 billion euros and designed to revive the country's economy, can effectively give manufacturing a boost.”
"Looking overseas, in the first six months of this year, despite President Trump's constant announcements and retractions regarding tariffs, the US remains our primary export market. The situation is decidedly fluid and still unclear. Beyond the tariff rates, what is most worrying is the uncertainty this approach has generated among industry operators, as demonstrated by the slowdown in the entire export system, not only to the United States but also to the rest of the world."
"For Italy, concluded Riccardo Rosa, "what we have observed in recent months is a slight, but still too weak, improvement in market sentiment, influenced by the clarification and simplification of Transition 5.0. This is also confirmed by the trend in months of assured production, which in the first half of 2025 stood at 6.6: better than in 2024, but still far from the results of previous years. In light of this, as we approach the final part of 2025, which coincides with the end of the operations of Industry 4.0 and Transition 5.0, we emphasize the need for a new industrial policy plan to support businesses from 2026 onwards."
UCIMU has already expressed its willingness to participate in the working group of the Ministry of Business and Made in Italy, which should lead to the drafting of a simplified provision that—as announced by the Minister himself—combines 4.0 and 5.0, facilitating their use by businesses, a prerequisite for their adoption.
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